ai is automating white-collar junior roles, but there are lots of blue-collar jobs out there, and many are resistance to the first wave of automation. status has to change.
Wondrously written piece and super insightful. Really enjoyed it. Thank you.
In my own industry, (advertising - RIP), as well as junior roles disappearing, those who were at their most senior, and should have been at the pinnacle of their career are also getting pushed off the top of the pyramid and, from what I've seen on r/advertising, many are retraining in blue collar work. I've learnt those out of hour rates are lucrative! You've probably read it, but if not, this piece in the NYT is really good on what's happening to those formerly at the top of the pyramid in the creative industries: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/22/opinion/jobs-ai-chatgpt.html xx
Thanks that’s kind. I wonder what it is about advertising as an industry which is seeing top and bottom go at the same time, that doesn’t seem to be true of law, accounting, banking?
Thoughtful piece. The cynic in me believes that a half-decent psychiatrist will make a mint (especially in the US) as parts of “the elite” realise that the game is up and cannot adjust to the new reality. Talk about status anxiety! It is also true that someone working in a care home delivers genuine value to the recipient of their kindness, humanity and emotional intelligence (clearly there are some real horror stories that point in the opposite direction).
Yes I think that’s right, I’m doing a deep research dive now on robotic progress to have a better sense of the probabilities and timelines. Obviously there is some probability that we get low-cost, general purpose robotics <5 years and automated many non-routine manual jobs too. I would like to put a number on that probability
Thanks for cutting to the chase, this was an important read - substack is filled with half baked advice for labor and this was one of the first that resonated with me. as a young person who's overwhelmed with what to do but leaning heavily towards trades and care work - i'm often left questioning more after i leave this app, feeling bad and confused that my desired careers aren't as "creative" as those suggested, rather practical for the sake of maintaining said creativity. embracing underemployement for sake of creative adventures is great, but a sparse option for most. i'm tired of looking at advice from people who ignore these options
"78% of employers plan to reduce or eliminate graduate hiring because AI can do the work. Entry-level positions in law, finance, and consulting are rapidly disappearing. Things are going to get worse."
This is incredibly short sighted. Because unless AI can do the higher level work, who's getting the experience to be promoted into those jobs when the incumbents retire?
My assumption is 1/ fewer jobs for same/higher output so fewer coming in at bottom fine and 2/ capabilities continue to improve so can do more higher level work too.
Now it’s time to talk price on both. 1/ how many fewer jobs? And 2/ how much better and how quickly?
Any discussion on if this is short sighted depends on where you sit on 1 and 2. Personally I think models improve very very fast and can do more and more higher value tasks.
Might an optimistic case be a sizable shift closer toward the sciences?
Sure, much of the systems as we know them will be automated, but there’s more than enough blue ocean (pun intended) to keep a generation or two of would-be-accountants/bankers/lawyers busy at a desk somewhere
Yea I’m sort of focused 1/ digital (AI) and then later 2/ physical (robotics). We don’t have the same line of sight for robotic progress and I think it’s much more handwavy at this point. Despite progress, I think cost and human-robot UX will be much stronger barriers to fast adoption. See AVs and drones.
Wondrously written piece and super insightful. Really enjoyed it. Thank you.
In my own industry, (advertising - RIP), as well as junior roles disappearing, those who were at their most senior, and should have been at the pinnacle of their career are also getting pushed off the top of the pyramid and, from what I've seen on r/advertising, many are retraining in blue collar work. I've learnt those out of hour rates are lucrative! You've probably read it, but if not, this piece in the NYT is really good on what's happening to those formerly at the top of the pyramid in the creative industries: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/22/opinion/jobs-ai-chatgpt.html xx
Thanks that’s kind. I wonder what it is about advertising as an industry which is seeing top and bottom go at the same time, that doesn’t seem to be true of law, accounting, banking?
Thoughtful piece. The cynic in me believes that a half-decent psychiatrist will make a mint (especially in the US) as parts of “the elite” realise that the game is up and cannot adjust to the new reality. Talk about status anxiety! It is also true that someone working in a care home delivers genuine value to the recipient of their kindness, humanity and emotional intelligence (clearly there are some real horror stories that point in the opposite direction).
I don’t think that’s cynical, I think that’s right. Maybe that’s another great job opportunity.. psychiatrists
You know my view ;)
Great piece 😀
Beautifully written!
Very kind, I appreciate it
doing lord‘s work out here 🫡
The core assumption here is that the entire physical world won’t be rebuilt for ease of robotic maintenance droids.
Yes I think that’s right, I’m doing a deep research dive now on robotic progress to have a better sense of the probabilities and timelines. Obviously there is some probability that we get low-cost, general purpose robotics <5 years and automated many non-routine manual jobs too. I would like to put a number on that probability
~0.64
That is certainly a number. I’ve checked and I can indeed confirm, it’s a hell of a number
What will you do with the number now that you have it?
Looking at how Optimus prime is going it’s a safe bet
Thanks for cutting to the chase, this was an important read - substack is filled with half baked advice for labor and this was one of the first that resonated with me. as a young person who's overwhelmed with what to do but leaning heavily towards trades and care work - i'm often left questioning more after i leave this app, feeling bad and confused that my desired careers aren't as "creative" as those suggested, rather practical for the sake of maintaining said creativity. embracing underemployement for sake of creative adventures is great, but a sparse option for most. i'm tired of looking at advice from people who ignore these options
How do you feel about the issue of status that I raise? Do you see that as a real barrier for you and your peers?
"78% of employers plan to reduce or eliminate graduate hiring because AI can do the work. Entry-level positions in law, finance, and consulting are rapidly disappearing. Things are going to get worse."
This is incredibly short sighted. Because unless AI can do the higher level work, who's getting the experience to be promoted into those jobs when the incumbents retire?
My assumption is 1/ fewer jobs for same/higher output so fewer coming in at bottom fine and 2/ capabilities continue to improve so can do more higher level work too.
Now it’s time to talk price on both. 1/ how many fewer jobs? And 2/ how much better and how quickly?
Any discussion on if this is short sighted depends on where you sit on 1 and 2. Personally I think models improve very very fast and can do more and more higher value tasks.
Might an optimistic case be a sizable shift closer toward the sciences?
Sure, much of the systems as we know them will be automated, but there’s more than enough blue ocean (pun intended) to keep a generation or two of would-be-accountants/bankers/lawyers busy at a desk somewhere
An AI-driven robot revolution may be possible by analogy.
Yea I’m sort of focused 1/ digital (AI) and then later 2/ physical (robotics). We don’t have the same line of sight for robotic progress and I think it’s much more handwavy at this point. Despite progress, I think cost and human-robot UX will be much stronger barriers to fast adoption. See AVs and drones.
My hairdresser daughter with a large following is going to remain secure for a longer time than her mid-level digital analyst sister.
I think that’s likely to be true, for main hairdresser is a social activity more than a task to complete, for some it’s therapy too